Motor City Blues
Basketball Betting Lines
07/02/2009 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I've always thought of sports as the ultimate form of
escapist entertainment.
And a whole lot of people need to "escape" right about now.
It was announced Thursday that the nation's employers cut a larger-than-
expected 467,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate climbed to a 26-year
high of 9.5 percent. All told, 14.7 million Americans were unemployed in June.
Perhaps no city has been hit harder than Detroit, where the economic recession
has left the Motor City with an astounding 22 percent unemployment rate, over
two times the national average.
It wasn't always like that. Once upon a time, moving to Detroit was like
winning the middle-class lottery. People with little or no real education were
able to get jobs in the auto industry and in turn garner nice pay, great
benefits and a solid pension. It was the very definition of the "American
Dream," for so many.
Increased competition from foreign companies, the unyielding demands of the
powerful unions and flat out mismanagement at the very top collapsed the
entire auto industry from within, leaving a crumbling city both politically
and fiscally.
Inasmuch, the people of Motown could use an "escape."
In recent years, the Pistons have been great at providing a few hours of
escapist entertainment. Six straight trips to the Eastern Conference finals
made late spring basketball a birthright for a generation of hoops fans...
Until last year.
Convinced his veteran-laden team was stale and couldn't get over the ultimate
hump, Pistons president Joe Dumars pushed the plunger and blew up his team.
The results were disastrous.
Joe D. jettisoned the underrated Flip Saunders for the untested and unproven
Michael Curry, and compounded that mistake with the ill-conceived Chauncey
Billups-Allen Iverson trade.
Curry's decision to bench veteran stalwart Rip Hamilton in favor of Iverson
was not well-received by his team. Gone was Detroit's legendary balance,
defensive prowess and chemistry, not to mention the run of six straight trips
to the East finals.
In his first year directing the perennial championship contenders, Curry led
the Pistons to just a 39-43 record, good for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern
Conference. Detroit was then quickly swept in the first round of the playoffs
by the top-seeded Cavaliers, who won each game by double digits.
Needless to say, this is a big summer for Dumars.
First, the Hall of Famer did an about-face Tuesday and fired Curry, just two
months after he had held a press conference to confirm that his embattled
coach would return to the Motor City in 2009-10.
Then the team - which did acquire plenty of cap space in the Iverson deal -
dove into free agency headfirst on Wednesday, reportedly agreeing to deals
with a pair of former UConn stars, sharp-shooting guard Ben Gordon, late of
the Chicago Bulls, and emerging forward Charlie Villanueva, formerly of the
Milwaukee Bucks.
Gordon, an offensive-minded two-guard just like Iverson, had been on the
Pistons' radar for quite some time and is a much better fit than the former
MVP.
"Ben agreed to come here knowing he would come off the bench," a source told
NBA.com. "That makes it completely different than Iverson coming here...Gordon
is choosing to come here and play the super sub role."
Villanueva, meanwhile, became available after Milwaukee inexplicably declined
to make him a qualifying offer on Monday.
Now, Detroit will feature a three-guard rotation of Rodney Stuckey, Hamilton
and Gordon, with Tayshaun Prince at small forward and Villanueva at power
forward.
The problem is the pivot, where battle-tested veterans Rasheed Wallace and
Antonio McDyess are both expected to move on, leaving the perpetually
underachieving Kwame Brown as the only current option.
Like the city they play in, the Pistons are still a long way away from their
glory days. But Dumars' dealings may have provided something far more
important than any championship trophy -- a welcome distraction for an
embattled fan base.
<< Thrashers sign Antropov
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers signed unrestricted free
agent forward Nik Antropov to a multi-year contract Thursday. Terms of the
deal were not disclosed, per team policy.
The 29-year-old compiled career-highs
<< Bremen's Schaaf confirms Naldo exit
Bremen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Werder Bremen manager Thomas Schaaf has
confirmed that Brazilian defender Naldo will be allowed to leave the club this
summer.
The 26-year-old centre-half has been with the Bundesliga club for four s
<< Twins demote Henn, to recall Duensing
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have assigned pitcher
Sean Henn outright to Triple-A Rochester and plan to recall left-hander Brian
Duensing prior to Friday's game with the Detroit Tigers.
Henn, who signed as a mi
<< Gudjohnsen expects to leave Barca
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona forward Eidur Gudjohnsen is
content to wait on a decision over where he will be playing his football next
season.
The 30-year-old is expected to exit the Camp Nou this summer, but his age
<< Longwood gives hoop's coach Gillian multi-year extension
Farmville, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Longwood University has extended the
contract of men's basketball head coach Mike Gillian. Financial terms were
not released but the extension covers multiple years.
The Lancers were 17-14 la
United loses out on Benzema >>
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Manchester United's hopes of signing
Karim Benzema are over after the France striker agreed to a six-year contract
with Real Madrid.
Benzema, 21, was believed to have been earmarked by United
Wolfsburg's Veh backs Dzeko decision >>
Wolfsburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Wolfsburg coach Armin Veh has backed
the decision to shun offers for star striker Edin Dzeko and keep him at the
club next season.
The 23-year-old Bosnia international had seemed set to join
NFL suspends Jets LB Pace for four games >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Jets linebacker Calvin Pace has been
suspended without pay for the first four games of the 2009 season for
violating the NFL's policy on performance enhancing substances, the league
announc
Atletico swoops for Juanito >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atletico Madrid has completed the signing of
central defender Juanito from relegated Real Betis.
The 32-year-old Spain international stopper has been with the Seville-based
club for more than a decad
Wolverhampton completes Milijas signing >>
Wolverhampton, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wolverhampton has completed the
signing of Nenad Milijas after being granted a work permit for the Serbia
midfielder.
Milijas, 26, agreed a four-year contract with the newly-promoted Prem
“You play to win the game!”
Those are the words of notoriously intense head coach Herman Edwards. Unfortunately, from a bettors’ perspective, most coaches don’t feel that way about the NFL preseason. August is a time to evaluate young players, finalize the depth chart and pray your star players stay healthy.
The trick to making money during the exhibition schedule is identifying coaches – like Edwards – who can’t stand losing even when there's nothing on the line.
The New York Jets betting won 15 of 21 preseason games and went 14-7 against the spread (ATS) during Edwards’s five-year tenure with the club. In his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs field boss, the team improved from 0-4 to 2-2.
Identifying win-a-holics like Edwards is a good start if you plan betting the preseason – even though most say you shouldn’t ... but what the hell do they know anyway?
Here’s a brief rundown of two teams that have a habit of winning during the second-stringers’ season, and another club that has a good chance of exceeding this year.
New York Giants betting lines
Playing in the media hub of North America can be stressful but the press can’t write anything negative about the way Tom Coughlin’s boys play in the preseason. The Giants won and covered all four games last summer, improving their record to 7-1 both straight up (SU) and against the spread over the last two years.
Coughlin has shown he’s not afraid to give his starters more time in the second preseason game than most of his colleagues, no doubt one of the reasons his team has been so dominant.
Dallas Cowboys betting lines
Bettors can count on America’s team early on. The Cowboys are 14-6 both SU and ATS since 2002 in warm-up contests. Former coach Bill Parcells, the coach of the team the last four years, has an intimidating, in-your-face presence – surely a reason Dallas has had so much early success.
The Big Tuna won’t be strolling the sidelines with looks of disgust, but new coach Wade Phillips will be anxious to make a good first impression for owner Jerry Jones.
Dallas plays the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos before things get serious. They then face the Houston Texans in their third contest (the game starters see most game time) and finish off with the Minnesota Vikings.
Expect a Dallas team able to walk away with another 3-1 preseason record.
Oakland Raiders betting lines
This team scored a league-worst 12 offensive touchdowns last season, so the rookies and veterans each have something to prove. There’s a bounty of first-unit jobs up for grabs and plenty of bodies competing for those slots.
First-time head coach Lane Kiffin will be eager to impress an owner who employs the philosophy, “Just win, baby!”
The 32-year-old Kiffin has to command respect from a locker room full of players older than him. All of these factors should lead to purpose in preseason.
Don’t forget: before playing like a team that belonged in NFL Europe, Oakland went 4-1 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition games.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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